Iranian Protests Continue

Despite calls from Supreme Leader Ayatolla Khamenei to back down and accept the election results of last week, the Iranian public have once again taken to the streets today in protest against the allegedly rigged re-election of President Ahmadinejad. Many have been beaten and arrested by the government's forces, and 15 to date have been killed, in what is the most popular uprising and defiance of the Iranian regime since the 1979 Revolution. Due to massive media clampdowns, see here for all the latest updates coming from Iran Read more...

Benjamin Netanyahu's Speech at Bar Ilan

Benjamin Netanyahu's speech last night was bound to upset a lot of people, and not surprisingly it has ruffled the feathers of both his own supporters as well as those who were never going to be happy with whatever he said anyway. This is the price a right wing leader pays when he edges further towards the centre and tries to please everyone: he inevitably ends up pleasing no-one.

For the first time however we saw a man who has never before mentioned the possibility of a Palestinian state now outlining the conditions under which he will make it possible. He also addressed and praised the economic successes of the cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states. So as to align himself as much as possible with the US, Netanyahu was careful to echo the sentiments and tone of hope expressed by President Obama last week in Cairo too.

He was right to emphasise that, contrary to Obama's implication that Israel's right to exist was premised on the Holocaust, the Jewish right to a stake in the land of Israel based on the 3,500-year-old Jewish connection to that land. ‘The places where Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, David and Solomon, and Isaiah and Jeremiah lived,' he said, ‘are not alien to us. This is the land of our forefathers.'

At the same time, he acknowledged that the Palestinian people also have rights, and that it is not Israel's desire to rule over them. In this context he declared, ‘If we receive this guarantee regarding demilitarisation and Israel's security needs, and if the Palestinians recognise Israel as the State of the Jewish people, then we will be ready in a future peace agreement to reach a solution where a demilitarised Palestinian state exists alongside the Jewish state.'

Although Netanyahu has made a giant leap forward toward the a political solution to the Israel-Palestinian Peace Process (though of course many in the PA would disagree due to him stopping short of allowing them control over their airspace and denying them the right to have a military - though these are not new conditions as they were on the table during the Clinton proposals in 2000 and also part of the unofficial Geneva Accords) he will still face deep ideologial objections from his coalition parties and the National Religious Camp who belive that the West Bank is still the core of the Jewish historical homeland and steeped in Jewish culture and history.

So far at least it looks like the speech has gone down well in Washington though. With the positions now out in the open, there is a lot of talking to be done about how the details of both the American and Israeli plans can be hammered out and put into action as soon as the deep internal divisions amongst the Palestinians has been resolved. For this to happen, it will not just be the United States that needs to play a major role but also the wider Arab World will be crucial to giving the support required if the process is to move forward at all. Read more...

Iranian Election Results 2009

20 years ago the Iranian national elections, or any election in the Middle East for that matter, it would not have been worth staying up late for. This year however was different. With a close race expected and plenty of fun and games along the way, the results were highly anticipated and eagerly awaited. It turns out however that we may just as well have been living in the past as the results ended as a throwback to the 80s and it seems nothing has really changed after all.

With a modern and politically savvy youth population, Iranian President Ahmedinajad knew what he was doing when blocking websites such as Facebook and YouTube, and other viral style media, that would allow his opponent, Hossain Mousavi, a chance to spread his message running up to the elections. Is it a coincidence too that during the 30minute TV broadcast by Mousavi's Green Party (for change), the electricity grids in 5 provinces came down and disrupted the message?

As threatened by the supporters of Mousavi, there has been an uproar in the calling of foul play in the results of this election, with areas that are typically Mousavi strongholds even showing a landslide turn in the tide towards Amhedinajad. An uproar may well be an understatement as thousands have taken to the streets in protest and riots - the worst in Iran for 10 years according to some commentators. Chaos has broken out further with leaders of opposition parties taken into custody via raids on their headquarters by the police and other government security forces.

So it looks like no change in Iran and its more of the same. Or perhaps this election has brought to the surface the true feelings of Iranians to the outside world and created internal strife even further that may complicate matters and make life a little more uncomfortable for the ongoing President. If so, then this feeling needs to be exploited and, in order to keep the hopes of the Mr Mousavi, his party and their supporters alive, a move by the US that would make life even more difficult for Ahmedinajad would be most welcome. And what could this move be? A simple persistence in outstretching the arm of diplomacy and talks that would no odubt be refused once again and leave Ahmedinajad having to face his own people once more. If the results of the election are as true as he claims them to be then he should feel right at home... Read more...

March 14 Wins Lebanese Elections

The citizens of Lebanon turned out in large numbers yesterday to vote in the country's parliament elections. News outlets this morning report that the pro-western alliance declared victory against the opposition led by the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and its allies. "I present this victory to Lebanon. It is an exceptional day for democracy in Lebanon," Prime Minister Fouad Siniora after polls predicted his pro-western coalition was winning.

A close race was predicted in these elections between the two sides. In the previous parliament, the western-backed 14 March alliance, held a small majority of 70 seats in the parliament over the more extreme opposition involving pro-Syria and pro-Iranian forces, which held 58 seats. Tens of thousands of troops were deployed across polling stations as security was a high concern in the relatively unstable country. 3.2 million citizens out of a population of four million were eligible to vote, with the final results expected to be officially released this afternoon.

The declared victory by the pro-western alliance is a positive sign for Israel and especially the United States, where recently President Barack Obama has been laying out his vision for relations between his country and the Muslim world. A victory by Hezbollah, who is backed by Syria and Iran, would have resulted in international isolation of Beirut and the possibility of increased tensions with Israel. However, Hezbollah's defeat will not signal an end to its overwhelming power over the Lebanese political system. Despite being in opposition in recent years, Hezbollah succeeded in imposing its will and coercing the Lebanese government to agree to a series of concessions that solidified Hezbollah's dominance in some regions of the country, thanks to the support of its sponsor, Iran.

Click Here For Lebanon's Daily Star

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Obama's Speech in Cairo

Obama's speech in Cairo today was a momentous one and one to set the tone of US-Muslim relations for years to come. Following the Bush administration Obama has a lot of fires to put out and although there is a long way to go yet, today marked the first step of many in a direction that could make right the perceived wrongs of the past.

Recognising the differences the separate the Islamic and West's civilisation and the conflicts that have occurred in the past, Obama appealed to the his Muslim audience's respect and love of scripture by echoing back at them phrases from the Koran,

"Be conscious of God and speak always the truth."

, though his idea of truth may not necessarily be in line with his audience's version of the truth.

The speech, although touching on Iraq, Iran, Holocaust Denial and Settlements, was very thin on detail. There was nothing intrinsicly new in the speech, nothing we haven't heard before. Though the context in which he was speaking was and whether he was able to convince his Arab audience will be seen in actions to come, the Lebanese elections next week being the first test. Speeches can be impressive, but the real power of them can only be realised by action.

Click Here For the Full Speech
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Lebanese Elections 2009

With a general election on June 7th, Lebanese passions are running high. With blue for the party of the Future, orange for the party of Change and yellow for Hizbullah, the party of God, Lebanon's unusual democracy, based on quotas for each of the 16 recognised sects in its 128-strong parliament, has a tendency to explode, as it did during Lebanon’s gruelling civil war in 1975-90. The country is also a cockpit for wider struggles. With outsiders such as Iran, America, Syria and Saudi Arabia throwing their weight behind competing factions, the electoral outcome will inevitably be seen as a test of their relative strengths.

America and its allies want the current parliamentary majority, a shaky coalition of Sunni Muslims, Druze and assorted Christians, to retain the hold it gained in the previous election, in 2005, when it swept to power on a wave of popular anger following the murder of Rafik Hariri, a five-times prime minister and Sunni strongman.

Iran and Syria, whose peacekeeping army dominated Lebanon until its hasty withdrawal after Hariri’s murder, seek victory for the challengers, an alliance of disgruntled Christian factions led by Michel Aoun, a nationalist former general, and two Shia parties, Amal and Hizbullah, which field militias that harried Israel during its occupation of south Lebanon in 1978-2000 and which again fought against the Israelis in the Second Lebanon War of 2006.

The outsiders are not subtle in their use of influence. America recently dispatched its vice-president, Joe Biden, on a quick visit. While expressing hope for a clean election, he held a private meeting with leaders of the current majority, known in Lebanese shorthand as the March 14th group, and hinted that a win for their foes could jeopardise the aid America has lately lavished on the Lebanese army to reinforce it in the face of Hizbullah’s militias, which remain superior in training, equipment and morale. For his part, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, which has showered equally large sums on its Lebanese protégés, predicts that their victory will bolster the “resistance”—to Israel and the West—and change the balance of power in the region.

But although some opinion polls suggest a slight lead for the opposition, the result may well be close. Oussama Safa, a political consultant, reckons that, given loyalties within the sectarian patchwork of voting districts, the two main alliances are each guaranteed around a third of the seats, leaving only a third of them in play.

Yet the result may not produce radical change. Since the 2006 war with Israel, the two main coalitions have become more polarised. The one led by Hizbullah says it won a “divine victory” against the Jewish state in the five-week war, whereas March 14th supporters still say the Shia militia must be disarmed and blames it for provoking an Israeli onslaught that caused widespread destruction.

Last year Hizbullah and its allies, frustrated by March 14th’s refusal to bow to their demand for a blocking share of seats in the cabinet, humiliated their opponents by staging a swift takeover of Sunni strongholds in Beirut. This move prompted March 14th to climb down at a reconciliation conference in Qatar. But the fighting infuriated Sunnis, frightened some of Hizbullah’s Christian partners and has left the squabbling parties suspended in a precarious equilibrium.

This, no matter what the election result, looks likely to be maintained, at any rate in the short run. Even if the March 14th group keeps a slim majority, it cannot counter Hizbullah’s street power under the charismatic leadership of Hassan Nasrallah. Nor can it stop Hizbullah’s quietly effective infiltration of key institutions, such as the army. In fact, some March 14th leaders already sound willing to accommodate their foes. The Druze chief, Walid Jumblatt, a weathervane of Lebanese politics and until recently a loud critic of Iran and Syria, has taken to exchanging compliments with Mr Nasrallah. A leaked recording of Mr Jumblatt in a private meeting revealed him disparaging his own coalition allies.

Yet the opposition alliance has weaknesses too. The Christian supporters of General Aoun feel slighted by the March 14th coalition and say that it is corrupt, but regard their own alliance with Hizbullah as tactical rather than strategic. Despite verbal support for the Shia movement, few Christians, whose own militias from the civil-war era were largely disarmed, are comfortable about Hizbullah’s growing military strength. And Hizbullah itself is uneasy with parliamentary politics. Fearing that it might be blamed for any future government’s failings, including a possible collapse of international support for the debt-ridden economy, it is fielding just 11 candidates, down from 14 in 2005, and may even give up its two cabinet posts.

Lebanon is used to fractious politics. Despite the years of turbulence, its economy is humming along nicely. It may tolerate another period of muddle and perhaps even emerge with a stronger centre, joining moderate parts of both the current coalitions. But the volatility is bound to persist. When a report in Der Spiegel, a German weekly, implicated Hizbullah agents in Hariri’s murder and in those of nine other people associated with March 14th, even the leaders of March 14th scuttled to defuse the bombshell, fearing the fallout across the country. Stability in Lebanon should never be taken for granted.
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Iranian Missile Threat

With Bibi Netanyahu in Washington this week trying to convince President Obama that Iran is to be taken seriously and is an international threat that needs to be taken care of and fast, President Ahmedinejad seems to be playing right into his hands. What more evidence does one need of the suspicious intentions of the Iranian President than the testing of a new Sejil missile that can reach distances of up to 2,000km.

As far as Israel is concerned, the new missile is not particularly a threat as it could be easily targeted even with the older models that have a range of up to 1,500km. Instead, it is the European community that should be worried, according to Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister, Danny Ayalon, who said:

"The Iranian clock is ticking fast and has to be stopped."

But the Obama administration sees it differently. Instead, Iran only displays "troubling behaviour" and is to be dealt with by diplomacy, sanctions and isolation should they not heed to the warnings and offers of discussion by America. In the meantime, the expectations and pressure on Israel to stop the expansion of settlements is also high and Netanyahu will find himself squeezed from both the Iranians and the Americans with regards to how he handles both situations.


But Netanyahu, as the political maneuveurer extraordinare that he is, has a way out. For if there is to be a renewed negotiation with the Palestinians, there will need to be someone on that side of the table with whom to talk. But at present there isn't. Step in the Egyptians. As Bibi talks with Obama, President Mubarak is talking with Mahmoud Abbas, Khaled Mashaal and Ismail Haniyeh to come to an agreement on unity. This will be the fifth round of talks and so far shows no greater sign of reconciliation than the previous four.

And while the talking continues, the clock keeps ticking.... Read more...

Netanyahu's Visit to Egypt

As the pope visits Israel this week, Bibi Netanyahu has more important business to attend to. His trip to Egypt for talks with President Hosni Mubarak today reflects the realigning of the Arab world and their shared concerns over Iran. The phrase 'Our enemy's enemy is our friend', never rang more true.

Next week, Bibi is scheduled for his first visit to Washington since he became Prime Minsiter. He will be looking to show Barack Obama that there is more common ground between the Israelis and the Arabs than one might expect - the main part being their concerns over Iran. If he can show Mr.Obama that he has already got arguably the most powerful state in the Arab world, Egypt, on his side then he will be half way there.

But he is not just stopping at Egypt. Before Washington's trip comes Bibi is also in line to meet with King Abdulla of Jordan, who has also been busy rallying support amongst the Arab world, most notably Syria, to joining Jordan, Egypt and other pro-western arabic states in their alliance against Iran. Although the rewards for Syria to leave the grasp of Iranian influence, the pressures to maintain the status quo are also immense.

Israel relationship with Egypt is the cornerstone of the Middle East Peace process. Since their agreement in 1979, the connection has been strained and cold but despite several attempts to destabalise it, it has remained strong and symbolic of the hope that is possible in the region. The relationship has found itself strengthed in recent years thanks to two factors that have created common ground with Israel's worries: 1) The meddling activities of Iran in Arab politics as it scrambles to become the major power in the Middle East by striving for nuclear capability and 2) Iranian backed-Hamas's extremism in Gaza which lead to Operation Cast Lead in January of this year.

During the war the schisms revealed in the Arab world have never been bigger. Mubarak recalled Egypt's diplomatic envoy from Iran and publicly announced that Iran was trying to swallow up the Arab states, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called on the Egyptian military and populace to bring down the Mubarak regime. Rhetoric of this kind is highly unusual in the Arab world, and led to a furious response in the Egyptian media, in which Nasrallah was lambasted for his statements and mocked for the fact that he has lived in hiding since the 2006 war with Israel.

Since the end of the Gaza War, Egypt has been struggling to control the weapons smuggling that Iran and Hezbollah have been carrying out in order to undermine Mubarak's government. From the IAF raid on an arms network running from Iran, via the Persian Gulf and Yemen to Sudan, Egypt, and finally, Hamas-ruled Gaza to the uncovering of a terroist Hezbollah cell in Egypt that was planning a series of attack on Egyptian soil, indicating that Iran had selected this arab state as a target for future attacks. All this means that Egypt is open for talks with Israel on how they can show a united front when meeting with the US President later this month.

But this is as far as it goes for now. Egypt will still be conscious of its 'obligations' to the Palestinians and its role as mediator in the peace process. As he will be going with PA President, Mahmoud Abbas, he will not want the atmosphere to be too awkward by having become closer with Abbas's enemy, Israel, for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is still a major issue that keeps the Israeli-Egyptian relationship cold and is needing another push to be resolved. But with King Abdullah wanting to push forward a new plan and a renewal of talks between Israel and Syria, Israel and the Plaestinians and Israel and the 57 Arab States, there is a lot going on and only time will tell if the various plans will be successful in achieving their aims. Read more...

Conflict in Sri Lanka

Has anyone noticed that the conflict in Sri Lanka contains striking similarities to the conflict between Israel and Hamas that occurred during Operation Cast Lead in January of this year? Apparently not. Maybe that's because there has come to light yet another example that highlights how much more bloody and horrific the conflict in Sri Lanka is, that of the bombing by the Sri-Lankan government of a hospital killing 91 civilians. Do we hear an international uproar over this though? Of course not.

The conflict in Sri Lanka is one of an independent terrorist organisation, the Tamil Tigers, fighting since 1983, against the Sri Lankan government for independence of the Tamil Eelam region in northern Sri Lanka. The conflict has caused over 70,000 deaths with thousands more injured and displaced (150,000 according to the ICRC). The Sri Lankan government, by any standards, has been waging a war many times more ruthless than that Israel Operation Cast Lead, though during that conflict and after the international community and the public at large has remained fairly laid back in its criticism. There have been demands for a ceasefire though without the public outcry there is less pressure as a whole to push Sri Lanka to put an end to its hostilities.

During the height of the fighting Sri Lankan Prime Minister, Ratnasiri Wickremanayake said "We are not ready for a ceasefire and the war against terrorism is at the last stage....Some countries are pressurising us to go for ceasefire agreement. We cannot listen to the concerned international body or community which is putting pressure on us to accept a ceasefire agreement with LTTE. Our sovereignty must be respected and there should be no condition. We will not yield to any pressure." Sound familar? As a result, the terrorist organisation that is the Tamil Tigers, so the Sri Lankan government tells us, are nearing the last days of their existence as the war comes to an end. Read more...

UN Walkout at Durban II

Mahmoud Ahmedinajad proceeded to prove all the anti-Durban I protestors right this afternoon as he launched into a predictable tirade against Israel and the Jewish people. Contrary to the principles and claimed purpose of the UN backed conference, Iranian's president proved to the world how hypocritical he actually is as by standing directly opposed to everything the Western world holds dear. As a result, many world leaders walked out of the conference as he began his speech to the delight and pleasure of the many spectators and thus reducing the conference to the shambles many were hoping it would be.




Some of those who boycotted the Durban II Conference in Geneva are:
Germany, Holland, US, Italy, Israel, Poland, Canada, and more. Instead of attending conferences such as these the right thing to do is indeed boycott them by not attending and thereby sidelining those who have no interest in furthering anti-racist values. By attending one only legitimises their claims as a possible option and turns what should be a fringe event into a mainstream one. Read more...